Your caveat that "all models are wrong but some are useful" is definitely one to note here. For example I know that MVRV z score is by definition flawed as it uses a standard deviation presumably assuming a normal distribution which bitcoin is anything but. Caution with leverage/capital indeed. Otherwise I've enjoyed the read.

Is your thesis however that by focusing on bitcoin and movements to the upside, you can then automatically then substitute all of that for whichever altcoin you decide to invest into?

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