Your caveat that "all models are wrong but some are useful" is definitely one to note here. For example I know that MVRV z score is by definition flawed as it uses a standard deviation presumably assuming a normal distribution which bitcoin is anything but. Caution with leverage/capital indeed. Otherwise I've enjoyed the read.
Is your thesis however that by focusing on bitcoin and movements to the upside, you can then automatically then substitute all of that for whichever altcoin you decide to invest into?
Thanks for that addition on the MVRV z score, good to note!
Yes, our thesis is indeed that rather than timing the pico top/bottom for BTC, you can somewhat capture the meat of the move of a bullrun by scaling in and out of positions using a confluence of models. So far vast majority of alts for better or worse still track BTC (& ETH).
Not sure entirely what you mean by 'automatically substitute all of that for X,Y,Z altcoin'
As a VC you have to deal with illiquid tokens (they're vested for ~2-3yrs usually), so that's pretty restrictive. That's why especially for VC's creating long term frameworks can be helpful. For myself personally (@DeFi_Educator) as a retail degen, I would benchmark my portfolio in BTC or ETH (personally ETH) rather than USD. Then using this long term framework for when to be aggressive (and have more alt exposure), When to take profits, when to be defensive and when to start actively deploying again starting with BTC/ETH (not alts until later).
Your caveat that "all models are wrong but some are useful" is definitely one to note here. For example I know that MVRV z score is by definition flawed as it uses a standard deviation presumably assuming a normal distribution which bitcoin is anything but. Caution with leverage/capital indeed. Otherwise I've enjoyed the read.
Is your thesis however that by focusing on bitcoin and movements to the upside, you can then automatically then substitute all of that for whichever altcoin you decide to invest into?
Thanks for that addition on the MVRV z score, good to note!
Yes, our thesis is indeed that rather than timing the pico top/bottom for BTC, you can somewhat capture the meat of the move of a bullrun by scaling in and out of positions using a confluence of models. So far vast majority of alts for better or worse still track BTC (& ETH).
Not sure entirely what you mean by 'automatically substitute all of that for X,Y,Z altcoin'
As a VC you have to deal with illiquid tokens (they're vested for ~2-3yrs usually), so that's pretty restrictive. That's why especially for VC's creating long term frameworks can be helpful. For myself personally (@DeFi_Educator) as a retail degen, I would benchmark my portfolio in BTC or ETH (personally ETH) rather than USD. Then using this long term framework for when to be aggressive (and have more alt exposure), When to take profits, when to be defensive and when to start actively deploying again starting with BTC/ETH (not alts until later).